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What does "Expected" mean?

Ronnie Zhou

October 04, 2018 17:37

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The expected value shows an "indication of expected activity for this time and day".

What does "this time and day" mean?

If I'm looking at stats for the past 7 days, is this the expected value for a typical day of the week (let's say Monday), or it's derived from some heuristic function to include all 7 days data?

When I change the view to the 60 day duration, is the expected value going to average out based on the past 60 days instead, or still 7 days, or of all time?

 

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2 comments

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  Stephen Badger October 05, 2018 15:55 Official comment

  So the answer of what "this time and day" means, depends on what timescale you have selected to view.

  For example, let's say that the current time and day is 11 AM, on Monday. Here is how the expected value is calculated in a few different scenarios:

  • You select a timescale of 48 hours. The expected value is a weighted average of the metric at every 11 AM within the last 48 hours.
  • You select a timescale of 7 days. The expected value is a weighted average of the metric at every 11 AM within the last 7 days.
  • You select a timescale of 30 days. The expected value is a weighted average of the metric at every 11 AM on every Monday within the last 30 days.
  • You select a timescale of 90 days. The expected value is a weighted average of the metric at every 11 AM on every Monday within the last 90 days.

  The guiding principle here for the expected values are that we calculate where possible based upon your organisation's usual weekly routine if enough data is available, or your organisation's daily routine otherwise. We also then favour data that is more recent.

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  Ronnie Zhou October 05, 2018 16:28

  Thanks for the clarification. That makes a lot of sense!